Real Conspiracies are Almost Never Uncovered by Conspiracy Theorists

In teaching methodology to undergraduates I get great milage from philosopher Bertrand Russell (1872–1970)’s analogy ‘Russell’s Teapot’:

“If I were to suggest that between the Earth and Mars there is a china teapot revolving about the sun in an elliptical orbit, nobody would be able to disprove my assertion provided I were careful to add that the teapot is too small to be revealed even by our most powerful telescopes.” — Russell (1952)

In the realm of conspiracy theorizing, Russell’s teapot is one a few necessary ingredients to any good “theory”. By their nature, conspiracy theories resist falsification as both evidence for and against them are re-interpreted as evidence of their truth. Such circular reasoning — very reminiscent of the foundations of religious belief — thus keep conspiracy theories alive and thriving.

As any conspiracy theorist will tell you, real conspiracies have and do occur, very rarely. The odd thing is that conspiracy theorists are never the people to uncover them. That is, real conspiracies are never uncovered by the very people so passionately interested in them.